There are two official plenums of the party’s Central Committee every year, the first one usually takes place in May, the second one takes place in October every year. However, for this 10th plenum, the Party Central Committee convened on September 18, earlier than usual.
So what is the reason?
At the 8th extraordinary session of the Party Central Committee on August 26, Bui Van Cuong – Secretary General of the National Assembly, announced to the press that the election of the State President will be held at the October 2024 National Assembly session.
This is also the Party’s usual plan, because the 10th Plenum will also take place in October, like the second conference sessions of the year before.
However, now the Party Central Committee convenes early, for what reason?
Usually, the plenum is when the Party evaluates the implementation phase of the 5-year plan, proposed by the Party Congress. It is the time to divide the 5-year plan into smaller parts, to implement it on schedule.
However, in recent years, the national affairs at the plenum have had to give way to the power-sharing and seat-sharing after the fighting has had results. They fought each other continuously, to the point that the official plenum sessions were not enough, they had to organize a series of extraordinary meetings.
At this 10th Plenum, it is very likely that General Secretary To Lam will officially give up the position of State President, so that the next session of the National Assembly can fulfill its “nodding” duty, completing the procedure. However, whether Lam will give up the position of State President as promised, or does not keep his word, is still unclear, we have to wait for the results to know.
There is information that the reason the Party Central Committee had to meet earlier than usual is because the military faction is afraid that Lam will not keep his word so they have to demand this seat as soon as possible. If this information is true, it can be seen that the Party Central Committee is still fighting fiercely. The military faction is determined to demand that Lam share power. If Lam agrees to give up his State President post, it can be considered that he has taken the first step back since launching the “soft coup” until now.
This plenum is considered an extraordinary meeting, even though it is in the name of an official meeting. Because the factions are constantly fighting, and every time a faction gains an advantage, they have to meet again to divide the spoils. From the 9th Plenum meeting to the 10th Plenum, there have been 2 extraordinary meetings, if there is another extraordinary meeting now, it will be very difficult to cover it up from public opinion.
The fact that Lam will give up the State President position is not the final result. After the 10th Plenum, the factions will continue to fight each other.
Normally, the 11th Plenum will take place in May 2025. Thus, from the 10th Plenum to next one will last 8 months, which is too long. It is very likely that between the next two plenums, there will be many other extraordinary meetings.
Lam became General Secretary in a situation where the majority of the Party was not convinced. This was the source of future disaster for him. When Nguyen Phu Trong became General Secretary, although he did not have a strong subordinates like Lam, Trong was supported by many people, except Nguyen Tan Dung and his “disciples.” As for Lam, apart from his disciples from Hung Yen, and a few people who have close relations with his father To Quyen, he is not liked by anyone. In particular, the military faction is showing that they do not want to be controlled by Lam.
The more extraordinary plenums, the more it proves that the Communist Party of Vietnam is very unstable. Lam sits on the “throne” in a party that is divided, hateful and even hostile to each other. That is a great disaster for him in the future.
Tran Chuong – Thoibao.de
